President Donald Trump will get his wish for an early-term victory on the eve of 2020 elections, a sign that the Republican Party is on the cusp of recapturing the White House after decades in the wilderness, according to an analysis of early voting and voting records by The Hill.
Trump has had to rely on grassroots support to pull his agenda through Congress, a strategy that could help him re-enter the race in the fall, as his party has been left largely out of the national spotlight.
Trump, a longtime Republican who is often criticized for his divisive rhetoric, could benefit from having Republicans energized around his agenda.
Democrats will also benefit from a surge of anti-Trump sentiment in the country, as they seek to retake control of the House and Senate in 2018.
Trump’s supporters, who typically lean Democratic, will be more willing to support a Republican in a midterm election than they would be in the past.
In the wake of the first presidential debate, Trump has made no secret of his desire to win re-election.
He has repeatedly made his disdain for his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, the centerpiece of his messaging and a key reason he has repeatedly been unable to achieve his agenda in Congress.
Trump also has relied on a combination of a broad coalition of party members and supporters, many of whom are angry at the government shutdown, and a diverse set of voters who are frustrated by the economic decline and a stagnant job market.
That has created a dynamic that is unique in recent elections, one that Democrats are increasingly looking to exploit.
“Trump is going to need a strong base of Republicans to take back Congress in 2020,” said Democratic pollster and analyst Patrick Murray, who has worked on Senate campaigns in both parties.
Murray said that Republicans need to be willing to stand up to the president’s agenda and make him accountable for his actions, noting that Trump’s rhetoric and attacks have been well-received by voters.
Trump has been especially critical of the president for his handling of the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.
Trump’s efforts to appeal to this base of support have been aided by a number of GOP voters who have become disillusioned with their party, Murray said.
“There is a large chunk of voters that just don’t feel as if they’re part of the governing process, and they want change,” Murray said, adding that Trump is playing to this discontent by offering voters a populist vision of change.
The president has been able to use this message of change and populist rhetoric to build support from these voters, Murray added.
He is using the same tactics in his first year in office, which is a good sign for Democrats in the 2018 midterms.
“I think the president has an opportunity to build on that,” Murray added, adding, “Trump needs to get his base back in and make it work with him.”
Republicans have a number challenges to contend with going forward, including the fact that their members are increasingly reluctant to support Trump’s agenda, especially his immigration policy.
But the White Nationalist Party, a conservative movement that Trump helped to start, has emerged as one of the most important players in the midterm elections.
Its members are now backing Republicans in large numbers, and the party is hoping that this will help boost support for Trump in the coming months.
While Democrats have the opportunity to exploit Trump’s populist rhetoric and make the case that Republicans are part of a corrupt system, they will also have to contend in the short term with a Democratic nominee who is not a fan of Trump.
“Trump has an enormous amount of support among white working class voters and those voters will be an important part of this,” Murray explained.
The fact that Trump does not have a large enough base of supporters among white voters is a potential problem for Democrats.
Murray predicted that a Clinton win in 2020 would put the GOP on a path to a historic victory.
“I think Trump can be competitive in 2020.
The Republican Party has to be competitive,” Murray predicted.
Trump is expected to make the campaign a referendum on Democrats’ handling of immigration, a topic that has become a focal point in the Trump era.
In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, Trump began pushing for a border wall to keep illegal immigrants out of his country.
Trump also has criticized Democratic congressional leaders for their refusal to support his agenda, which could further alienate these voters.
Democrats, however, have tried to frame this as a Republican strategy to appeal back to white working-class voters.
Murray noted that many Democrats in Congress have voted to keep the U.S. open for businesses.
“The reality is, it’s not really about politics,” Murray concluded.
“It’s about the economic situation that is confronting them.
I think the Republicans will be able to get back in in 2020.”